This project aims to estimate needs for morphine for people who die from cancer and identify changes in proportions of estimated need which could theoretically be met by countries’ submitted requirements using INCB-recommended methods of estimation between and assess changes over time.
Each year, countries submit estimates of requirements for controlled substances to the international regulator under the terms of the Single Convention on Narcotics. Whilst global consumption of opioids is a key global health inequality, the role of estimates in determining availability is unexplored.
We apply global guidance on how to estimate requirements for morphine to treat people who die from cancer to estimate need for morphine in countries worldwide and compare this to countries’ estimates of requirements to explore proportions of estimated need which could theoretically be met by requirements and look at changes over time.
We identified that global availability of morphine increased, from estimates sufficient to treat 86% of calculated needs in 1997, to 701% in 2017. However, the proportion of countries estimating requirements feasibly meeting >100% of calculated needs rose only from 16% to 30%. Almost all low- and middle-income countries submitted inadequate estimates with little change in 20 years. Our first paper is now published and we are planning to conduct a further analysis in 2025.
Outputs